How Long Losing Runs Last
Every record that makes money also spends long stretches losing it. The question for anyone following tips is not whether a losing run will come but how long it can last and how far it can take the balance down. This page answers both from the record itself, tip by tip in match-date order.
The runs so far
- Longest losing run
- 14 tips
- 31 December 2025 to 1 January 2026
- Longest winning run
- 22 tips
- +16.5 units, 14 March 2026
- Deepest drawdown
- −109.6 units
- over 1,403 tips
- Losing runs of 3+
- 249
- Losing runs of 5+
- 55
- Losing runs of 8+
- 7
The record is currently on a run of 1 losing tip (−1.0 units) since 10 November 2026.
The deepest drawdown
The worst stretch to date began on 14 January 2026, when cumulative profit stood at a high, and bottomed out on 14 March 2026, −109.6 units lower after 1,403 tips. The record climbed back above that high after a further 1,021 tips. That is the number a follower at flat stakes would have needed to sit through, and it is the single most useful figure on this page.
How often runs happen by chance
At the record's overall strike rate of 55.4%, the chance that any given tip loses is 44.6%. The chance of a particular run of five straight losses is therefore about 1 in 57, and of eight straight about 1 in 639. Those sound rare until you remember that a record of 4,865 tips contains almost that many overlapping windows of eight, so runs of that length are not a sign of anything. They are what a 55.4% strike rate looks like over time.
The count of losing runs of 3+, 5+ and 8+ above is the record's actual experience. Compare it with your own tolerance before following: if five losers in a row would make you stop, the table says how often that has happened.
What it means for a bankroll
A flat-stakes follower needs a bankroll large enough that the deepest drawdown does not empty it, with room for the next one to be deeper. With a drawdown of −109.6 units already on the record, a bankroll of 165 units at a flat 1-unit stake would have survived it with half as much again in reserve; a bankroll of 55 units would have been wiped out. The staking plans guide runs the same drawdown through flat, percentage and Kelly staking.
Runs are computed in match-date order across all sports, so a losing run can span several sports on the same day. The per-month reports on the guides index show each month's longest run on its own.
Frequently asked questions
What is a drawdown?
The fall from a high point in cumulative profit to the low point that follows, before a new high is reached. If the record stood at +50 units, slid to +20 and later climbed past +50 again, that was a 30-unit drawdown. It is the number that decides whether a follower survives a bad spell, because it is the most they would have been down from their best point.
How many units should a bankroll hold?
There is no single answer, but a useful floor is the deepest drawdown the record has already shown, with room to spare, because the next one can be deeper. A bankroll of 100 units at a flat 1-unit stake means a 1% stake per tip. The staking plans guide works through the arithmetic.
Does a long losing run mean the tips have stopped working?
Not on its own. At a strike rate around 55%, a run of eight straight losses happens by chance roughly once in every 650 sequences of eight, and a record of thousands of tips contains thousands of such sequences. Runs of that length are expected. What would be a warning is the strike rate or the gap to implied probability drifting down over a large number of tips, not a streak.
More guides
- Which Odds Ranges Win Most Often · Strike rate and return for every price band in the record, against what the odds implied.
- Results by Betting Market · Match winner, totals, handicaps, both teams to score and props: how each market has performed.
- Expected Value in Betting, Explained · What a positive expected value bet is, how implied probability works, and how to read it off a real record.
- Staking Plans: Flat, Percentage and Kelly · How the main staking methods behave through a losing run, with the record's own drawdown as the test case.
- Closing Line Value and Why Odds Move · Why the price at kick-off matters, how to measure whether you beat it, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- All guides and monthly results
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Figures on this page are recomputed from the public record as tips settle.