Results by Betting Market
A record is usually quoted as one number. It is really several records stacked together: match-winner bets, goal and points totals, handicaps, both-teams-to-score, the draw markets and player props each behave differently, carry different prices and win at different rates. This page pulls them apart.
The largest group is match winner with 1,985 of the 4,865 settled tips. 6 of the 7 markets are in profit at flat stakes; the rest are not.
Results by market
| Market | Tips | Won | Lost | Avg odds | Implied strike | Actual strike | Gap | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1,985 | 1,134 | 851 | 2.25 | 55.6% | 57.1% | +1.5 pts | +78.3 | +3.9% |
| Over / under | 1,237 | 702 | 535 | 1.97 | 55.5% | 56.8% | +1.3 pts | +39.7 | +3.2% |
| Handicap / spread | 757 | 408 | 349 | 1.93 | 52.7% | 53.9% | +1.2 pts | +20.2 | +2.7% |
| Both teams to score | 324 | 176 | 148 | 1.95 | 54.3% | 54.3% | 0 pts | +14.2 | +4.4% |
| Draw / double chance | 275 | 161 | 114 | 2.12 | 54.2% | 58.5% | +4.3 pts | +41.0 | +14.9% |
| Player props | 145 | 45 | 100 | 4.06 | 34.4% | 31.0% | −3.4 pts | −16.9 | −11.7% |
| Other markets | 142 | 70 | 72 | 3.29 | 44.3% | 49.3% | +5.0 pts | +17.1 | +12.0% |
What each group contains
- Match winner. A side to win the match outright, including moneyline picks in the US sports.
- Over / under. Total goals, points, games or sets over or under a line.
- Handicap / spread. A side with a points, games or goals start, or giving one away.
- Both teams to score. Football picks on whether both sides find the net.
- Draw / double chance. The draw, double chance and draw-no-bet selections.
- Player props. A named player to score, assist, be booked or pass a stat line.
- Other markets. Qualification, outright and anything the groups above do not cover.
What the table shows
Among markets with at least 50 tips, draw / double chance has returned the most: +14.9% on stakes from 275 tips, with a strike rate of 58.5% against an implied 54.2%. Player props has returned the least at −11.7% from 145 tips.
The gap column is the one to read. It is the strike rate minus what the prices implied, so it is the same yardstick whether a market is priced around evens or at 4.00. A positive gap over hundreds of tips says the market has, so far, been beaten; a positive gap over a few dozen says very little yet. The odds ranges guide applies the same test by price instead of by market.
Player props are the group to treat with most caution in either direction. They are priced long, so a short losing spell costs many units and a short winning spell flatters the whole record. Their line in the table will move more than any other as tips settle.
Each monthly report on the guides index repeats this table for a single month, so a strong or weak market can be traced to when it happened.
Frequently asked questions
How is each tip assigned to a market?
From the wording of the selection on the tip's page. 'Over 2.5 goals' is a totals bet, 'Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5' is a handicap, 'Both teams to score' is its own group, and 'Arsenal to win' is a match winner. A handful of selections that fit none of those, such as a side to qualify, are grouped as other markets.
Why are player props shown separately?
They behave differently. A player to score, assist or be booked is usually priced much longer than a match market, so the strike rate is lower and the units swing further per tip. Mixing them into the match markets would blur both.
Which market should I follow?
This page cannot tell you that, and the small groups in particular move a lot from month to month. What it can show is where the record has and has not beaten the prices so far, with the tip count beside each figure so you can judge how much weight it carries.
More guides
- Which Odds Ranges Win Most Often · Strike rate and return for every price band in the record, against what the odds implied.
- How Long Losing Runs Last · The longest winning and losing runs in the record, the biggest drawdown, and what that means for a bankroll.
- Expected Value in Betting, Explained · What a positive expected value bet is, how implied probability works, and how to read it off a real record.
- Staking Plans: Flat, Percentage and Kelly · How the main staking methods behave through a losing run, with the record's own drawdown as the test case.
- Closing Line Value and Why Odds Move · Why the price at kick-off matters, how to measure whether you beat it, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- All guides and monthly results
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Figures on this page are recomputed from the public record as tips settle.