Which Odds Ranges Win Most Often
A strike rate on its own says nothing. A tipster who only backs 1.20 shots will hit 80% of the time and still lose money. This page puts every settled tip in one of five price bands and shows, for each band, the strike rate the odds implied next to the strike rate that actually happened.
Across 4,865 settled tips the record stands at 55.4% and +193.4 units at flat one-unit stakes. The biggest band is 1.80 to 2.19, which holds 41% of all tips.
Results by odds band
| Odds | Tips | Won | Lost | Avg odds | Implied strike | Actual strike | Gap | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 775 | 592 | 183 | 1.36 | 73.7% | 76.4% | +2.7 pts | +33.2 | +4.3% |
| 1.50 to 1.79 | 1,183 | 755 | 428 | 1.64 | 61.2% | 63.8% | +2.6 pts | +52.5 | +4.4% |
| 1.80 to 2.19 | 1,981 | 1,022 | 959 | 1.94 | 51.8% | 51.6% | −0.2 pts | −1.0 | −0.1% |
| 2.20 to 2.99 | 516 | 202 | 314 | 2.46 | 41.0% | 39.1% | −1.9 pts | −20.4 | −4.0% |
| 3.00 and over | 410 | 125 | 285 | 6.21 | 22.9% | 30.5% | +7.6 pts | +129.3 | +31.5% |
What the table shows
The best-returning band so far is 3.00 and over: 410 tips, 30.5% against an implied 22.9%, for +129.3 units and +31.5% on stakes. The weakest is 2.20 to 2.99 at −4.0%, where the strike rate of 39.1% compares with an implied 41.0%.
3 of the 5 bands are running above the strike rate the prices implied (Under 1.50, 1.50 to 1.79, 3.00 and over). The others are below it. A gap of a point or two either way on a few hundred tips is within normal variance; a gap that holds across thousands of tips is not.
Long shots deserve a note of their own. A band of tips at 3.00 and over will show a low strike rate by construction, and its units swing more from one month to the next than any other band, because a single winner at 6.00 is worth five losers. Read its gap column and its tip count before its strike rate.
How to use this
If you follow tips selectively, the band table is the honest place to start, more so than the headline figure on the record page. A band with a positive gap over a large number of tips has, so far, been priced too generously by the market. A band with a negative gap has not, however good its strike rate looks. Either way the sample size matters: the losing runs guide shows how far a genuine edge can sit under water before it shows.
Every tip behind these numbers has its own page in the prediction archive, and the whole set is downloadable as CSV if you want to cut it differently.
Frequently asked questions
What does implied strike rate mean?
Decimal odds can be turned into a probability: 1 divided by the price. Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance, 1.50 implies 66.7%, 4.00 implies 25%. The implied strike rate of a band is the average of those probabilities across its tips, so it is the hit rate you would expect if the bookmaker's prices were exactly right.
Why can a band have a high strike rate and still lose units?
Because short prices pay little per winner. A band of tips at 1.30 needs to win more than 77% of the time just to break even. Strike rate only means something next to the odds, which is why the table shows both and the gap between them.
Are the odds in this table the odds available now?
No. Every tip is graded at the price recorded when it was published, which is also the price shown on the tip's own page. Prices move before kick-off, so a bettor who placed the same selection later may have got a better or worse price.
More guides
- Results by Betting Market · Match winner, totals, handicaps, both teams to score and props: how each market has performed.
- How Long Losing Runs Last · The longest winning and losing runs in the record, the biggest drawdown, and what that means for a bankroll.
- Expected Value in Betting, Explained · What a positive expected value bet is, how implied probability works, and how to read it off a real record.
- Staking Plans: Flat, Percentage and Kelly · How the main staking methods behave through a losing run, with the record's own drawdown as the test case.
- Closing Line Value and Why Odds Move · Why the price at kick-off matters, how to measure whether you beat it, and what it can and cannot tell you.
- All guides and monthly results
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Figures on this page are recomputed from the public record as tips settle.